Top 10 Dumb

Funny

Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them -- a crop like this doesn't come along every year.

1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" -- Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008

At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.

2. AIG (NYSE:AIG - News) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech

For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting.

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.

6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" -- Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007

On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million -- down 11% from a year earlier -- in the worst housing slump since the Depression.

7. "I think you'll see (oil prices at) $150 a barrel by the end of the year" -- T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008

Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.

8. "I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." -- Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008

In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (NYSE:C - News) needed an even bigger rescue in November.

9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." -- Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007

About a year later, Madoff -- who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market -- told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.

10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007.

Mr. Steele, meet President-elect Barack Obama.

And my very favorite dumbest prediction ever.. which gets included on the list every year, because it's so paranoid stupid..

I think that World War III will be fought in the streets - Urban Guerilla Warfare Style - of the United States. God help us.
Douglas V. Gibbs | Homepage | 01.27.07 - 11:41 pm | #

I would point out one person who has been right about just about everything all along.. Dr. Paul Krugman. But, of course, he's "shrill" - hence they call him Teh Shrill One..

Most people who make predictions are the most stupid people you could ever meet.. by definition. There are, however, some very smart people that establish scientific theories that make predictions, and that's true for economics as well as physics or biology.

The difference is, one group is just pulling it out of their ass with no basis to make the claim except an agenda, and the other uses the scientific method and lets the science make the prediction instead of just making it up on a "hunch". Unfortunately, the people that are most often on teevee are the ones that just pull it out of their ass.

The moral of that story is, when you are basing a decision on somebody else's opinion, ask yourself how it is that they came up with their prediction... and needless to say, if the word "faith" is anywhere in their explanation, it's best to just scoff and do the complete opposite.

I very rarely make predictions, and when I do, I'm careful how I do it.. and try to frame it in a humorous way, or as a guess, so as to not have somebody like me throw it back at me pointing out how dumb I am.

And of course.. the funniest constant predictor of the stupidest shit ever.. wrong virtually every single time.. Teh Loon!

...

Bonus stupid...

It is very clear to me that the liberal mass media is only propping up Obama for Hillary to eventually overcome the difficulties that he represents and do not think that he can overcome Hillary.

I do no seriously believe that he is a credible threat and I do believe that he even has a chance to win the Presidency even if he some how manages to win the Democratic nomination, this country will not vote for him. - Rightwingguymn

But.. of course, they did.. and by a landslide.