Tuesday, August 29, 2006

A crash is coming..

Check out this graph. Remarkable, isn't it?

And then there is;

NEW YORK - Worries about the job market caused consumers' confidence in the U.S. economy to tumble even more than expected in August to its lowest level in nine months.

Though there are still more consumers who feel business and labor conditions are favorable than unfavorable, the gap is closing, economists noted — which could dampen spending going into the holiday shopping months.

"It confirms that the economy is slowing down, that things are cooling off a bit, and that consumers are little bit more concerned about the job situation than they were earlier this year," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.
My sense is that there is a recession coming, and housing prices are going to drop off sharply. If the Republicans keep control of congress in the fall, that will accelerate the process. I think we'll see it by next summer.

For me being in Dallas, prices have been fairly flat. My house may drop down to what it was when I bought it, which is really okay because I planned to own it one way or another indefinately. For others in hotter areas, it looks like the peak is quickly approaching. Certainly I would not buy a house at an inflated price right now. You'll get creamed.

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