Thursday, January 29, 2009

Get Ready For It

Tristero;

The rejection of bipartisanship by the Republicans should be perceived in terms of their long term strategy. They know that the depression has just begun. The worse is yet to come. How bad will it be? Far worse than anyone so far has imagined, and we've all imagined it as pretty bad. It will exceed our most extreme fantasies. (In fact, my father, who turns 100 next month (!) said this is shaping up as much worse than the thirties; I think he may be right.) The GOP knows that no feasible stimulus plan, no matter how large or well-crafted, can avert catastrophe. They intend to refuse to go along with anything Obama proposes, wait until disaster hits,and then - counting on the country's short memory span as well as the complicity of the media - blame Obama, Democrats, and liberalism for destroying the economy.

Obama also knows that economic disaster cannot be avoided and that it will be far worse than anything anyone alive - other than centenarians like my Dad - has ever seen; that's why his inaugural address was so grim. He also knows that no stimulus plan will work. And he knows he will be blamed for it when the misery adds up. Therefore, he is trying like hell to get the GOP to sign up, at least partially, for his proposal so he can spread the blame, This is after all, a time-honored political tactic, used by Bush, for example, to claim bipartisan authorization for the invasion of Iraq.

I think this is absolutely true. The only way that disaster can be averted is by re-inflating the bubble, putting off for another day the implosion. The current stimulus plan may take an edge off, but it's not bold enough to jump start jobs and spending.

Here's the thing. There are some professions that are vital, and cannot be done without. I think there's going to be some crunches on IT professionals, but it won't be nearly as bad as those in the service or manufacturing sectors. Our society is inexorably linked to computer systems and the software that drives them. The problem will be, if entire companies fail, the entire staff is out of work.

My suggestion is for people to prepare for the worst. You best get enough cash so that you can survive a year or more without income. I wouldn't take a new loan out on anything. Yes, I know, that exacerbates the problem, but you have to look out for yourself when the shit really hits the fan.

If you can weather the storm, and come out on the other side stable, and with a few bucks in your wallet, you should be golden.

Still, the Republicans ruined the economy, and know the big implosion is coming on Obama's watch. They all seem to know it.. and the Republicans are going to do their level best to pin it all on Obama. Doug has already started doing that, and he hasn't been in office but a couple of weeks.

It's going to be extraordinarily difficult to fight that meme.

Remember: as Limbaugh said, Republicans want the president and his policies to fail. Their refusal, to a person, to vote for the stimulus bill demonstrates that they expect the worst to happen no matter what is done. They intend fully to exploit that. Remember Carter's "maliaise" and Reagan's "morning in America?" Republicans see a repeat of that dynamic, but this time on steroids. That is why we must never let the country forget who wrecked the economy: George W. Bush, his Republican enablers in Congress, and the literally bankrupt philosophy of conservatism.

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